NFL week 11 picks

(No movie quote of the day since there will be two posts today)

Here are the matchups for week 11:

Week 10 record: 6-8 (42.8 percent)
2016 record: 82-63-2 (56.4 percent)
All-time record: 204-152-2 (57.2 percent)

Tonight:

New Orleans RB Mark Ingram.
New Orleans RB Mark Ingram.

New Orleans Saints (4-5) at Carolina Panthers (3-6)
Bank of America Stadium
Charlotte, N. C.
Line: CAR -3.5

I thought Carolina was “back” before the game last week, but I guess not after giving up a late lead to Kansas City. However, I still like the Panthers to win this game. New Orleans can put up points but its defense is so bad, and I’m not sure the Saints are good enough to slow down Cam Newton and Carolina’s offense. I think the home crowd helps Carolina’s defense to get some stops and the win.

Prediction: Panthers 30, Saints 25

Sunday:

Pittsburgh WR Antonio Brown.
Pittsburgh WR Antonio Brown.

Pittsburgh Steelers (4-5) at Cleveland Browns (0-10)
FirstEnergy Stadium
Cleveland
Line: PIT -8

As a fan of pro football, I’ve come to realize that a team’s first win or loss will likely come when you least expect it. I think this is that time for Cleveland. Pittsburgh is struggling on both sides of the ball and isn’t playing well right now. The Browns played on Thursday last week and have had extra time to prepare for this game. It’s a division rivalry at home for the Browns. A part of me thinks Cleveland will finally get its first win of the year.

Prediction: Browns 27, Steelers 24

Baltimore QB Joe Flacco.
Baltimore QB Joe Flacco.

Baltimore Ravens (5-4) at Dallas Cowboys (8-1)
AT&T Stadium
Arlington, Texas
Line: DAL -7

If this game were in Baltimore, I’d consider taking the Ravens because they have a tough defense. With the game in Dallas, I can’t pick against the Cowboys though. Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott are playing at a high level, and the Cowboys’ defense isn’t playing too bad either. I don’t think the Ravens have the offense to go on the road and outscore Dallas.

Prediction: Cowboys 28, Ravens 20

Detroit WR Golden Tate.
Detroit WR Golden Tate.

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-7) at Detroit Lions (5-4)
Ford Field
Detroit
Line: DET -6.5

Detroit is quietly playing like the best team in the NFC North right now. Matt Stafford is having the best year of his career and the Lions have won four out of their last five games because of it. It’s hard to pick against Detroit right now. Jacksonville is currently a dumpster fire, and I don’t think the Jaguars are a good enough team to knock off the Lions on the road.

Prediction: Lions 31, Jaguars 26

Tennessee QB Marcus Mariota.
Tennessee QB Marcus Mariota.

Tennessee Titans (5-5) at Indianapolis Colts (4-5)
Lucas Oil Stadium
Indianapolis, Ind.
Line: IND -3

This is one of the toughest games to predict this week because Tennessee is hot and Indianapolis is coming off a bye. I usually hate picking against a team coming off a bye week, but Marcus Mariota is playing really well – throwing 17 touchdowns and just three interceptions in his last six games. I think the Colts’ defense is going to have a tough time trying to slow down Mariota.

Prediction: Titans 35, Colts 30

Cincinnati WR A. J. Green.
Cincinnati WR A. J. Green.

Buffalo Bills (4-5) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-5-1)
Paul Brown Stadium
Cincinnati
Line: CIN -2.5

Cincinnati is not a good team. The Bengals are having problems scoring points, and keeping teams out of the end zone. I would pick against Cincinnati, but it looks like the sky is falling in Buffalo. Even though the Bills are coming off a bye, they’ve lost three games in a row and have given up 100 points defensively during that stretch. The Bills are worse than Cincinnati right now and I just can’t bring myself to pick them.

Prediction: Bengals 28, Bills 26

Kansas City QB Alex Smith.
Kansas City QB Alex Smith.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (7-2)
Arrowhead Stadium
Kansas City, Mo.
Line: KC -7.5

It’s getting to the point that I’m not ever going to pick against the Chiefs in the regular season because they have won 17 of their last 19 regular season games. Arrowhead Stadium is one of the toughest places to play in the NFL and I think that’ll affect Jameis Winston’s play. I expect the Chiefs’ defense to get after Winston and force him to make some turnovers.

Prediction: Chiefs 34, Buccaneers 23

Chicago QB Jay Cutler.
Chicago QB Jay Cutler.

Chicago Bears (2-7) at New York Giants (6-3)
MetLife Stadium
East Rutherford, N. J.
Line: NYG -7.5

The Giants have now won four games in a row after getting off to a 2-3 start. Eli Manning has the Giants’ offense rolling, and they’re playing pretty well defensively. I can’t see Chicago going into the Meadowlands and getting a win. The Bears just aren’t very good, and have had too many injuries. Plus, Jay Cutler is back to being a subpar quarterback after last week.

Prediction: Giants 31, Bears 20

Arizona RB David Johnson.
Arizona RB David Johnson.

Arizona Cardinals (4-4-1) at Minnesota Vikings (5-4)
U. S. Bank Stadium
Minneapolis
Line: Even

I don’t think Arizona is that good, but Minnesota is a mess right now. Sam Bradford has been terrible and the Vikings have lost four games in a row. Even though this is a road game for the Cardinals, I expect their pass rush to be too much for Minnesota’s banged up offensive line, and the Vikings will struggle keeping Bradford upright.

Prediction: Cardinals 23, Vikings 20

Miami RB Jay Ajayi.
Miami RB Jay Ajayi.

Miami Dolphins (5-4) at Los Angeles Rams (4-5)
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Los Angeles
Line: MIA -2

Don’t look now, but Miami is starting to look like the team that everyone thought they would be a few years ago. Adam Gase has his team playing very well – winners of four in a row – and Ryan Tannehill is playing the best football of his career. Jared Goff is finally getting his chance as the starting quarterback for the Rams. I hope he does well, but I expect him to struggle in his first career start because Miami’s defense is pretty good.

Prediction: Dolphins 24, Rams 20

San Francisco QB Colin Kaepernick.
San Francisco QB Colin Kaepernick.

New England Patriots (7-2) at San Francisco 49ers (1-8)
Levi’s Stadium
Santa Clara, Calif.
Line: NE -13

I feel like this could be a trap game for New England. The 49ers are awful, but it’s a long road trip for the Patriots and Colin Kaepernick has been playing pretty well for San Francisco the last few weeks. I still think the 49ers have one of the worst rosters in the league, but I’m still putting New England on upset alert. I think the Patriots win, but the 49ers will keep this game within the spread.

Prediction: Patriots 27, 49ers 19

Philadelphia RB Darren Sproles.
Philadelphia RB Darren Sproles.

Philadelphia Eagles (5-4) at Seattle Seahawks (6-2-1)
CenturyLink Field
Seattle
Line: SEA -6.5

I think this is going to be a very difficult game for Philadelphia. Carson Wentz hasn’t been playing well – throwing two touchdowns and four interceptions in his last five games. I think Wentz’s struggles continue because Seattle’s defense is one of the league’s best. I think the Eagles have a difficult time scoring points in one of the NFL’s toughest environments.

Prediction: Seahawks 26, Eagles 17

Green Bay OLB Clay Matthews.
Green Bay OLB Clay Matthews.

Green Bay Packers (4-5) at Washington Redskins (5-3-1)
FedEx Field
Landover, Md.
Line: WAS -2.5

As a fan, I’m so mad at Green Bay right now. The Packers have zero heart and aren’t playing with any energy. I think that comes back to bite them in the butt this week. Washington has a very good offense and Green Bay’s defense is too banged up. I think Aaron Rodgers manages to move the ball against Washington’s defense, but it’s going to be difficult for the Packers’ defense to slow down Kirk Cousins and the Redskins.

Prediction: Redskins 31, Packers 28

Monday/Game of the week:

Oakland RB Latavius Murray.
Oakland RB Latavius Murray.

Houston Texans (6-3) at Oakland Raiders (7-2)
Estadio Azteca
Mexico City
Line: OAK -5.5

I’ll finally go on record and say that I think Oakland is the best team in the NFL record right now. Derek Carr is playing like a MVP candidate, and the Raiders are getting their run game going and playing tough defense. Houston’s offensive line isn’t very good, and I think the Raiders’ pass rush will be the difference maker in this game. I expect Khalil Mack and Bruce Irvin to get after Brock Osweiler and make it difficult for him to make enough plays to win.

Prediction: Raiders 27, Texans 21

Teams with a bye week:
Atlanta Falcons
Denver Broncos
New York Jets
San Diego Chargers

Thanks for reading

Shane Price
Follow me on Twitter – @priceisright53

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