NFL week 6 picks

Movie quote of the day:

“That’s thirty minutes away. I’ll be there in ten”

– Winston “The Wolf” Wolfe, “Pulp Fiction” (1994)

Here are the matchups for week six:

Week five record: 6-8 (42.8 percent)
2016 record: 40-37 (51.9 percent)
All-time record: 162-126 (56.2 percent)

Tonight:

Denver QB Trevor Siemian.
Denver QB Trevor Siemian.

Denver Broncos (4-1) at San Diego Chargers (1-4)
Qualcomm Stadium
San Diego
Line: DEN -3

Trevor Siemian is going to back at quarterback for this game. I expect Denver to get back on track because of it. The Broncos were embarrassed at home last week by the Falcons and I expect them to turn it around for this game. San Diego is a dumpster fire right now. The Chargers rank No. 28 in scoring defense, and I think they’ll struggle slowing down Denver’s offense. Plus, Denver has won 15-straight division games on the road.

Prediction: Broncos 30, Chargers 24

Sunday:

Buffalo head coach Rex Ryan.
Buffalo head coach Rex Ryan.

San Francisco 49ers (1-4) at Buffalo Bills (3-2)
New Era Field
Buffalo, N. Y.
Line: BUF -7.5

Buffalo has been on a roll since getting beat by the Jets in week two. Ever since that game, the Bills have won three games in a row outscoring opponents 79-37. This is a long road trip for San Francisco – a team that has really struggled since week one. I can’t pick against Buffalo right now, the Bills are the better team.

Prediction: Bills 33, 49ers 23

Washington OLB Ryan Kerrigan.
Washington OLB Ryan Kerrigan.

Philadelphia Eagles (3-1) at Washington Redskins (3-2)
FedEx Field
Landover, Md.
Line: PHI -2.5

Washington is another team that has been playing well since starting the regular season 0-2. However, even though the Redskins have looked good, the combined record of the opponents they’ve played the last three weeks is 5-10. I’ve said is before that I really like Philadelphia so far. Carson Wentz has been playing really well. I like the Eagles to bounce back and come out ready to play for this game after suffering their first loss last week.

Prediction: Eagles 24, Redskins 23

Cleveland QB Cody Kessler.
Cleveland QB Cody Kessler.

Cleveland Browns (0-5) at Tennessee Titans (2-3)
Nissan Stadium
Nashville, Tenn.
Line: TEN -7

There’s no other way around it, Cleveland is terrible. I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt and say the Browns will win a game or two at some point this season – but this isn’t this game. Marcus Mariota finally put together a good performance last week on the road against Miami. I expect him and the Titans’ offense to build off that. I don’t think Cleveland has what it takes to go into Nashville and outscore Tennessee. I like the Titans.

Prediction: Titans 26, Browns 19

New York Giants QB Eli Manning.
New York Giants QB Eli Manning.

Baltimore Ravens (3-2) at New York Giants (2-3)
MetLife Stadium
New York, N. Y.
Line: NYG -3

I like the Giants in this game. I think Baltimore is overrated, and it has shown the last two weeks since the Ravens have lost back-to-back games at home. The Giants are backed into a corner after losing three-straight games. I know that the Giants have had a lot of injuries, but I think the home crowd helps them win this game.

Prediction: Giants 24, Ravens 19

Carolina OLB Thomas Davis.
Carolina OLB Thomas Davis.

Carolina Panthers (1-4) at New Orleans Saints (1-3)
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
New Orleans
Line: CAR -3

Carolina’s secondary has been torched this season, but it made strides last week holding Jameis Winston to just 219 passing yards and one touchdown. It looks like the Panthers will get Cam Newton back this week too. Carolina’s offense has struggled this season, but New Orleans has the worst scoring defense in the NFL. I think Carolina finds a way to get it done on the road.

Prediction: Panthers 31, Saints 28

Chicago ILB Danny Trevathan.
Chicago ILB Danny Trevathan.

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-3) at Chicago Bears (1-4)
Soldier Field
Chicago
Line: CHI -2

I know that Jacksonville is off to a bad start this season, but the Jaguars won two weeks ago over Indianapolis and they’re coming off a bye week. I like teams that have had extra time to prepare. The Bears are too banged up right now and they give up a lot of points defensively. Also, it looks like Chicago is going to have Brian Hoyer again at quarterback for this game. I think Jacksonville steals one in Chicago.

Prediction: Jaguars 26, Bears 23

Los Angeles DT Aaron Donald.
Los Angeles DT Aaron Donald.

Los Angeles Rams (3-2) at Detroit Lions (2-3)
Ford Field
Detroit
Line: DET -3

Detroit is coming off a big win over Philadelphia last week. I think the Lions are feeling good about themselves. This is a long road trip for a Los Angeles team that is coming off a bad loss – not a good recipe for the Rams. Detroit has the capability to score points and I expect the Lions to force Case Keenum to make mistakes.

Prediction: Lions 27, Rams 22

Pittsburgh WR Sammie Coates.
Pittsburgh WR Sammie Coates.

Pittsburgh Steelers (4-1) at Miami Dolphins (1-4)
Hard Rock Stadium
Miami
Line: PIT -7.5

I really don’t see how Miami can win this game. The Dolphins rank No. 28 in scoring offense and No. 18 in scoring defense. Ben Roethlisberger and Pittsburgh’s offense has been playing at a really high level. The Steelers can put up points in a hurry. I think Pittsburgh pulls away in the second half.

Prediction: Steelers 30, Dolphins 17

New England WR Julian Edelman.
New England WR Julian Edelman.

Cincinnati Bengals (2-3) at New England Patriots (4-1)
Gillette Stadium
Foxboro, Mass.
Line: NE -8.5

Here’s another game that I don’t see much of a contest. The Bengals aren’t playing well – losing three of their last four games. Cincinnati ranks in the bottom half of the league in both scoring offense and defense. Tom Brady came out guns blazing last week and I don’t expect that to change. I think New England wins comfortably.

Prediction: Patriots 34, Bengals 17

Kansas City WR Jeremy Maclin.
Kansas City WR Jeremy Maclin.

Kansas City Chiefs (2-2) at Oakland Raiders (4-1)
Oakland Coliseum
Oakland, Calif.
Line: Even

Other than the game of the week, this is the most intriguing matchup this week. These teams could be in contention to win the AFC West at the end of the season. That being said, I like Oakland to win this game. The Raiders have won three in a row, and their defense has been playing well since week two. I don’t think Alex Smith can outscore Derek Carr on the road.

Prediction: Raiders 24, Chiefs 21

Seattle QB Russell Wilson.
Seattle QB Russell Wilson.

Atlanta Falcons (4-1) at Seattle Seahawks (3-1)
CenturyLink Field
Seattle
Line: SEA -6.5

I’m still not sure how good Atlanta really is. I know that the Falcons are coming off an impressive road win over Denver, but I’m not ready to buy in. Seattle’s defense is statistically better than Denver, and Seattle is the toughest place to play. If Atlanta wins this game, I’m ready to buy in. Right now, I think the Seahawks win a close one.

Prediction: Seahawks 24, Falcons 20

Indianapolis WR T. Y. Hilton.
Indianapolis WR T. Y. Hilton.

Indianapolis Colts (2-3) at Houston Texans (3-2)
NRG Stadium
Houston
Line: HOU -3

Houston has the ability to get after the quarterback and Indianapolis arguably has the worst offensive line in the league – giving up 20 sacks so far this season. I think that will be too difficult for Andrew Luck to overcome in order to win this game. The Texans’ offense has sputtered in recent weeks, but I think they get back on track in this game against the Colts’ subpar defense.

Prediction: Texans 34, Colts 28

Monday:

New York Jets QB Ryan Fitzpatrick.
New York Jets QB Ryan Fitzpatrick.

New York Jets (1-4) at Arizona Cardinals (2-3)
U of Phoenix Stadium
Glendale, Ariz.
Line: ARI -7.5

The Jets have been outscored 82-33 in their last three games. The Jets are struggling to do anything right at the moment. They can’t keep opponents out of the end zone – ranking No. 23 in points per game. Carson Palmer should be back as the starter in this game for Arizona. The Cardinals are a better team than the Jets. They have the better coach and have had more time to prepare.

Prediction: Cardinals 27, Jets 16

Game of the week:

Green Bay OLB Clay Matthews.
Green Bay OLB Clay Matthews.

Dallas Cowboys (4-1) at Green Bay Packers (3-1)
Lambeau Field
Green Bay, Wis.
Line: GB -4.5

The Cowboys are another team that I’m not sure how good they really are. Dallas is on a four-game win streak, but the combined record of the teams the Cowboys have faced during that stretch is 7-13. Dallas is also running the ball very well, but again, the best run defense Dallas has faced in the last four games is Cincinnati – ranking No. 21. Green Bay will be the first real test this year for Dallas. The Packers are better than any team the Cowboys have played so far, and they rank No. 1 in run defense. Dak Prescott has been great for Dallas, but I can’t see him going into Lambeau and outperforming Aaron Rodgers.

Prediction: Packers 26, Cowboys 21

Teams with a bye week:
Minnesota Vikings
Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Thanks for reading

Shane Price
Follow me on Twitter – @priceisright53

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