NFL week 5 picks

Movie quote of the day:

“Stay calm, okay? Let’s not lose our heads. It’s… it’s a fine ID; it’ll… it’s gonna work. It’s passable, okay? This isn’t terrible. I mean, it’s up to you, Fogell. This guy is either gonna think ‘Here’s another kid with a fake ID’ or ‘Here’s McLovin, a 25 year-old Hawaiian organ donor.’ Okay? So what’s it gonna be?”

– Evan, “Superbad” (2007)

Here are the matchups for week five:

Week four record: 7-8 (46.6 percent)
2016 record: 34-29 (53.9 percent)
All-time record: 186-134 (58.1 percent)

Tonight:

San Francisco QB Blaine Gabbert.
San Francisco QB Blaine Gabbert.

Arizona Cardinals (1-3) at San Francisco 49ers (1-3)
Levi’s Stadium
Santa Clara, Calif.
Line: ARI -3.5

It’s hard for me to pick Arizona right now. The Cardinals are really struggling and they’ll be without Carson Palmer for this game. I don’t trust Drew Stanton to go on the road and play well against a San Francisco defense that performs well at home. Arizona’s defense struggles to stop the run, so, I expect the 49ers to lean on Carlos Hyde. I like the 49ers to get the upset.

Prediction: 49ers 21, Cardinals 19

Sunday:

New England QB Tom Brady.
New England QB Tom Brady.

New England Patriots (3-1) at Cleveland Browns (0-4)
FirstEnergy Stadium
Cleveland
Line: NE -10.5

New England finally gets Wonderboy – Tom Brady – back this week. We know that Brady will come out with a massive chip on his shoulder for this game, and I expect the Patriots to get back on track after losing to Buffalo last week at home. I think Brady is going to come out a little rusty after missing the first four games, but I still like New England to win comfortably.

Prediction: Patriots 27, Browns 16

Detroit QB Matt Stafford.
Detroit QB Matt Stafford.

Philadelphia Eagles (3-0) at Detroit Lions (1-3)
Ford Field
Detroit
Line: PHI -3

Doug Pederson and Carson Wentz have the Eagles’ offense rolling right now. Detroit ranks No. 25 in total defense, and No. 20 in points per game. So, I think the Lions will struggle trying to slow down Philadelphia’s offense. The Eagles’ defense has been stellar, but they haven’t faced a remotely good offense on the road so far. I think Matt Stafford keeps the Lions in the game, but I think the Eagles get a late score to stay unbeaten.

Prediction: Eagles 27, Lions 26

Chicago RB Jordan Howard.
Chicago RB Jordan Howard.

Chicago Bears (1-3) at Indianapolis Colts (1-3)
Lucas Oil Stadium
Indianapolis
Line: IND -4.5

I know that I’ve told my readers to sell on the Colts’ stock, but I like them in this game. Chicago will be without Jay Cutler, Jeremy Langford, and Kevin White for this game. Even though Indianapolis has one of the worst defenses in the league, I think it’s going to be difficult for the Bears to outscore Andrew Luck with their lack of playmakers.

Prediction: Colts 31, Bears 24

Miami head coach Adam Gase.
Miami head coach Adam Gase.

Tennessee Titans (1-3) at Miami Dolphins (1-3)
Hard Rock Stadium
Miami
Line: MIA -3.5

Tennessee has struggled to score points this season mainly because Mariota has been a turnover machine – five interceptions and three fumbles in just four games. The Titans have scored just 36 points in two road games this season. I think Miami is the better-coached team and the Dolphins have had more time to prepare.

Prediction: Dolphins 24, Titans 20

Baltimore LB C. J. Mosley.
Baltimore LB C. J. Mosley.

Washington Redskins (2-2) at Baltimore Ravens (3-1)
M&T Bank Stadium
Baltimore
Line: BAL -4

This game has potential to be a shootout because the Redskins can score points, and also give up a lot of points. Despite its strong start, Baltimore hasn’t passed my eye test. I don’t think the Ravens are that good, but I can’t bring myself to pick Washington.

Prediction: Ravens 27, Redskins 20

Houston RB Lamar Miller.
Houston RB Lamar Miller.

Houston Texans (3-1) at Minnesota Vikings (4-0)
U. S. Bank Stadium
Minneapolis
Line: MIN -7

I can’t bring myself to pick against Minnesota right now. The Vikings’ defense has been excellent, and their offense has been able to move the ball. If a team is going to go on the road and beat Minnesota, it’ll need a better quarterback than Brock Osweiler. I think Houston is a good team, but this could get ugly.

Prediction: Vikings 27, Texans 17

Jets DE Sheldon Richardson.
Jets DE Sheldon Richardson.

New York Jets (1-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1)
Heinz Field
Pittsburgh
Line: PIT -7

There’s no way around it, the Jets are terrible right now. They’re having problems scoring points and keeping opponents out of the end zone. This will be a difficult challenge for the Jets’ defense because Pittsburgh can score points quickly. I like the Steelers to win big.

Prediction: Steelers 34, Jets 13

Denver RB C. J. Anderson.
Denver RB C. J. Anderson.

Atlanta Falcons (3-1) at Denver Broncos (4-0)
Sports Authority Field
Denver
Line: DEN -5.5

I’m looking forward to this game. Both teams have been playing well in recent weeks. Matt Ryan and Atlanta’s offense has been outstanding, but I think Denver’s defense will be too much for them this week. The Broncos’ pass rush is too good and I expect Matt Ryan to make some mistakes. Meanwhile, I think Denver chews clock with its run game to keep the Falcons’ offense off the field.

Prediction: Broncos 31, Falcons 20

Cincinnati QB Andy Dalton.
Cincinnati QB Andy Dalton.

Cincinnati Bengals (2-2) at Dallas Cowboys (3-1)
AT&T Stadium
Arlington, Texas
Line: CIN -1

Dallas has been playing well since its week one loss to the Giants. However, the combined record of the teams that the Cowboys have played the last three weeks is 4-8. Cincinnati’s defense will be the best one that Dak Prescott has faced this season. I think Prescott will struggle in this game and I don’t think Dallas has the defense to slow down the Bengals’ offense.

Prediction: Bengals 27, Cowboys 21

Buffalo WR Robert Woods.
Buffalo WR Robert Woods.

Buffalo Bills (2-2) at Los Angeles Rams (3-1)
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Los Angeles
Line: LA -2.5

If this game were in Buffalo, I’d like the Bills to get the win. However, this is a long road trip for them and I think they’ll have a bit of hangover after finally getting a win over the Patriots in Foxboro last week. Los Angeles is a tough team with an awesome defense. I think the Rams keep their win streak going.

Prediction: Rams 23, Bills 17

San Diego TE Hunter Henry.
San Diego TE Hunter Henry.

San Diego Chargers (1-3) at Oakland Raiders (3-1)
Oakland Coliseum
Oakland, Calif.
Line: OAK -3.5

This young Oakland team looks like its getting better every week. The Raiders’ three wins have all come on the road. Their only loss was to a pretty good Atlanta team. Oakland’s defense has been playing well the last two weeks. It’s tough to pick against the Raiders right now, and San Diego is terrible.

Prediction: Raiders 28, Chargers 20

Monday:

Carolina LB Luke Kuechly.
Carolina LB Luke Kuechly.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-3) at Carolina Panthers (1-3)
Bank of America Stadium
Charlotte, N. C.
Line: CAR -6

Both of these teams are off to slow starts and are in desperate need of a win. Carolina has been hit with a bunch of injuries and it doesn’t look like Cam Newton will play in this game. The Panthers’ secondary is awful, so, Jameis Winston and his receivers should be able to make plays. I want to pick an upset, but Las Vegas really likes the Panthers. Vegas must know something I don’t.

Prediction: Panthers 22, Buccaneers 17

Game of the week:

Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers.
Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers.

New York Giants (2-2) at Green Bay Packers (2-1)
Lambeau Field
Green Bay, Wis.
Line: GB -7.5

This game will be decided if Green Bay’s secondary can slow down the Giants’ passing attack. The Packers have been gashed defensively through the air this season. The Giants have had Green Bay’s number the last three times these teams have met – the odds are against them to win for a fourth-consecutive time. I can’t pick against Aaron Rodgers at home. I like the Packers to win in a shootout.

Prediction: Packers 35, Giants 30

Teams with a bye week:
Kansas City Chiefs
New Orleans Saints
Seattle Seahawks
Jacksonville Jaguars

Thanks for reading

Shane Price
Follow me on Twitter – @priceisright53

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